Retire in 40sTrump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Defense Plan Sparks Debate Over Feasibility and Costs
Recently, President Donald Trump announced the 'Golden Dome' missile defense plan, which has become a hot topic.
This plan, estimated at about $175 billion, aims to almost completely protect the United States over the next three years from aerial threats such as ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons, and drones.
Canada has also shown interest in participating in this plan.
Golden Dome is an expanded program based on the 'Iron Dome for America' initiative announced last January.
However, experts’ evaluations are quite cautious.
Bernstein analysts noted that this plan resembles past initiatives like President Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and the missile defense agency's layered defense system from the 2000s, pointing out that overcoming technical challenges is extremely difficult.
Existing US defense systems such as THAAD, Patriot, GMD, and SM-3 are expected to play a central role in the initial Golden Dome, but attempts to intercept missiles in the 'boost phase' (right after rocket launch)—which is ideal but technologically difficult—have so far failed.
The plan starts by securing a budget of $25 billion in the Senate reconciliation bill, but the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total costs could exceed $500 billion.
Bernstein believes this figure may be inaccurate, but expects the initial $175 billion budget to be distributed among both traditional and non-traditional defense contractors like SpaceX and Anduril.
For reference, CEOs in the defense industry trust Major General Michael Goodline, former Deputy Director of Space Operations, who will lead the project. However, they worry it resembles past large-scale defense projects that failed due to a lack of clear acquisition and integration strategies.
Experts emphasize the gap between policymakers’ high expectations and technological realities, explaining that while technology has advanced, threats have become more complex.
Defending all 346 US cities with populations over 100,000 would require far greater costs than the CBO budget estimate suggests.
To gauge scale, the Missile Defense Agency has already invested $8 billion just to defend the small island of Guam.
The space-based interceptors at the core of Trump's plan face heavy technological and financial burdens, requiring hundreds of satellites in orbit to counter complex threats like submarine-launched missiles, significantly increasing costs.
There are also questions about whether missile defense effectively acts as a deterrent.
Many analyses suggest offensive weapons like Columbia-class submarines, B-21 bombers, and Sentinel ICBMs are much more efficient and cost-effective than defensive systems.
Defense is always more expensive than offense, and because adversaries can adapt quickly and cheaply, the success of defense plans remains uncertain.
However, regardless of success, this plan is likely to result in increased spending and broader participation within the defense industry.
Major defense companies such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, Boeing, and BAE Systems are expected to be key beneficiaries.
Overall, the Golden Dome project is ambitious but clearly faces many challenges in execution and cost, indicating a long road ahead before completion.